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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Our website is in all cases simple, fast, and safe transactions for US dollars. Sell now! Basic, fast, and special. There is no recruitment. The highest rate is insured. Moment and confidence in strong security. We operate credit or other forms of cash and in addition, we offer how to cash out bitcoin anonymously get BTC money online. Get money from these split Bitcoins. Use the exchange stages to convert BTC into money. Convert bitcoins into money using cash converters. Use the direct electronic payment framework. We learn about some simple ways to convert BTC into USD, INR, EUR, or GBP, you can use BTC to add machine changes to Bitcoin in any global currency using the Bitcoin price index including USD, GBP, EUR, CNY, Japanese Yen. If you really need to change bitcoin to dollars, store it on a computer with your bitcoins at a rate of 1 to 5,000 USD and other proposals to convert 1 Bitcoin into $ 5,200. Currency conversion gets high rates. We offer high prices for digital money without any hassle, and with the best possible prices in the market, in this article, I will describe how to sell bitcoins for USD or convert BTC to USD. Convert Bitcoin into cash. Make sure you check out Living at bitcoincashout.com. Bitcoin Cashout is the leader in the mining scene equipped with ASIC rigs. Simply start measuring, enter your Bitcoin address, and start mining. Free cloud mining program. Moment Free online device to convert BTC to USD or vice versa. The conversion table of BTC Bitcoin to USD [US dollar] and the exchange steps are also very simple and you can buy BTC in US dollars, with a credit card, and how to transfer bitcoins between wallets , but there is no deal for 100 Bitcoins constantly, convert it into USD. It will end up being an exchange of monetary benchmarks, like the US dollar, which will not once again be important for Bitcoin to replace paper monetary standards in the long run. If you are looking for the latest cost of BTC in USD, the trading segment will reflect the market conditions in a split second.
Fiat Currency to Cryptocurrency Calculator. Real-time rates from multiple exchanges.
Hey, Developed a small project that helps you calculate the equivalent amount from fiat money to cryptocurrencies and vice-versa. Website - Pingrates(https://pingrates.herokuapp.com/) Currently, it supports five cryptocurrencies. Looking to add more later on.
Bitcoin ( BTC )
Ethereum (ETH )
Ripple ( XRP )
Litecoin ( LTC )
Bitcoin Cash ( BCH )
Primarily it supports three fiat currencies and many more by using appropriate exchange rates. For all other currencies rates are calculated using USD Rates and Coinbase Forex rates.
US Dollar ( USD )
British Pound ( GBP )
Euro ( EUR )
Currently, it provides live rates from three Exchanges. Working on adding more soon!
For Desktop user's Notification Alerts are provided which will be delivered using Web Notifications. Just Allow Notifications in Browser and you will receive small popups whenever the conditions are met.
If you have any issues, queries, or find any bugs please comment down or contact me on the E-mail ID provided on the website.
With Bitcoin Suddenly Surging, Canaan Stock Is Also Going Up Today
The pandemic period played into the hands of the entire team and we managed to build beauty in our services. In anticipation of the exchange, the team tidied up the sites and services and connected new tools. First of all, we paid attention to the preparation of all services for a foreign audience, taking into account its mentality. New sections, localizations, nice things, and much more to ensure the most efficient use of the TKEY resource. In addition to the new tabs, the services that we will talk about in this material, there is a special page for representatives of the exchange with the necessary documentation for listing — https://tkeycoin.com/en/documentation/. https://preview.redd.it/63a1cmdwve151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a064bff4acd1c1e3171f2c72ff79533b87aa3e1
Buying cryptocurrency for pound, dollars, euros, and other currencies
At the end of February, we told you that we are working on building a payment service that will include the provision of services: buy cryptocurrencies, sell a cryptocurrency, withdraw cryptocurrency to Bank cards, etc. This day has come, now you can buy Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether USDT, Basic Attention Token (BAT), Algorand (ALGO), Tron (TRX), OKB (Token Okex.com). https://preview.redd.it/1pm2cnv8we151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=69473d2e5ed1b8dc75189362b46906752be29895 The purchase is available in any currency: Russian ruble, US Dollar, Euro, British pound, Ukrainian hryvnia, Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, Japanese yen, Turkish Lira, Argentine peso. As you can see, the currency corridors are quite extensive, which allows you to make exchanges fast and at a favorable rate. Just choose the right pair to exchange or buy, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. Even if this wide list does not include the currency you want to buy, such as Bitcoin or USDT, it’s okay — the service will automatically convert your currency into the payment currency and the Bank will make the exchange. Exchanges take place within 1–3 minutes, it is enough to pass quick verification once, which allows you to work with a volume of > 15,000 euros per month. https://preview.redd.it/0ln5uttawe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=35de9e413db35bb53f39332aa4197cd54a3e211c
Exchange of cryptocurrencies for pound, dollars, euros, and withdrawal of Bankcard
In addition to the fact that you can now easily buy a cryptocurrency for fiat currencies, pound, dollars or any other, during this week we will finish work on the withdrawal to a Bank card and you can easily withdraw your profit to the card, the most important thing is that this is a completely legal method, and all operations pass through banks and jurisdictions where work with digital assets is legalized.
This means that when you buy or make a withdrawal to the card, you get legal funds that are credited to you by the Bank or payment system.
If you are used to working with effective tools that work in a new way, or rather correctly and legally, then this service is for you. Fast crediting, easy exchange, a large selection of currency pairs, that’s what the company is betting on. We work with the most reliable third-party partners to make your cryptocurrency process easy and convenient, and most importantly safe for You. The service supports plastic and virtual Bank cards VISA, MasterCard, MIR, and other payment systems for fast payment processing. https://preview.redd.it/x1jnm1ccwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86fc353ad5f207db8d233821204b521ba0b3d0e On the exchange page, you can choose any currency pair to exchange in the opposite direction, for example, GBP to BTC or USD to BTC. Choose a suitable pair for exchange, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies for exchange: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. How it works When buying cryptocurrency for the first time, your Bank reserves (holds) the requested amount, then this amount is transferred to the authorization waiting state. As soon as the Bank freezes the fiat funds, the service fixes the exchange rate at the time of creating the application, reserves the cryptocurrency, and provides you with 30–40 minutes to complete verification. After successful verification, the service charges cryptocurrency to the wallet.
Support for other currencies, including TKEY, will be added gradually and highlighted through service updates. As for the TKEY exchange, it will become available in exchange services after listing on the exchange. Listing on an exchange allows you to automate the exchange process, link the necessary services, and most importantly, the exchange provides liquidity, which is key when we talk about exchanging for a particular currency. We will tell you more about the operation of the service and its advantages, chips, in a separate material dedicated to the withdrawal and purchase of cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies, as well as touch on various banking issues and tell you how you can combine the SWAP service for more efficient exchange and withdrawal to the card.
By making an exchange or purchase of cryptocurrency, you help children and people who need our help. We deduct 0.1% of the profit from each transaction to charity funds. This is the fastest and most comfortable way of charity, which allows you to bring together people who are not indifferent to other people’s problems. TKEY enables people to do good deeds, and the resulting turnover profit of 0.1% is sent to charity funds every month. Together with You, we create new opportunities for people in need who need help — “Big things have small beginnings”. How does it work? You have made an exchange or purchase operation, the company has accumulated the volume of these operations for a month->the company has chosen a charity Fund->sent funds to the charity Fund’s account. Priority charity funds are children’s aid funds. You can always suggest a candidate for a particular Fund by sending a message to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). Why do we write Funds and not a Fund? This is the first launch of the service, so depending on the monthly volume, we will focus on distributing funds to one charity or several. For example, if we have accumulated $ 10,000, we can distribute $ 5,000 to 2 funds. if we have accumulated $ 100, it is logical that we will only send this amount to 1 Fund. With the development of the service, we will be able to focus on several funds, which we will actively help due to the received volume.
New blocks were added, the entire page was fully localized and is available in Chinese, Korean, English and Russian, and QR codes were added for easy navigation for the Asian audience.
Documentation for the exchange
We have already mentioned that there is a section for exchanges with the necessary documentation for listing, now it is available in English. In the next updates, it will be translated into Russian, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), and Korean.
Added answers to frequently asked questions in various sections of the site, You can find the information directly on the section page, for example, TKEY-QT, SWAP or Core. Right on the page there is a FAQ section, in which we disclose answers to questions, for example: How are You going to solve the scalability problem, or why did you choose Phoenix as the logo and symbol of the project, or how do you exchange cryptocurrency for pound or dollars? As you can see, you can get answers to different questions, depending on the topic of the site section. https://preview.redd.it/8utkvv6iwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=d493ec784d74c5982486e36fe3b4bcbcb6d57335
In addition to various improvements, connecting services, our team has been working every day on other main areas of the Tkeycoin project, which are already being prepared for the next release and we will tell you what updates, what plans, events, and what else will be interesting this year.
Online conference with management
An online conference in question-answer format will be organized. The main task of the conference, in addition to questions and answers, is to discuss plans, talk about new directions, touch on issues of legislation, and analyze current issues of users. The online meeting format will allow you to get feedback and discuss a large number of issues in a short time. Questions related to technical support and other questions that can be answered through the administration will not be discussed. The meeting involves the development, constructive, and suggestions from users for further development of the Tkeycoin project. If you are interested in participating in the conference, you can also make business proposals during it, please use the time to your advantage. We work for you.
New content: reports, new categories, useful information
Based on user feedback, we introduce new categories to our content plan: Reports This section will be accompanied by information about the work done by the team for the month, the format of submission — abstracts, highlights. This format will help establish feedback between users and developers. Question-answer In addition to the content that we produce ourselves, users have questions that arise during the process of working with the project’s services, as well as during interaction with the project itself. To avoid making guesses and making up stories, we have introduced the question-answer category. Users ask questions in comments, and the company prepares answers based on the questions and they are published in the post. Depending on the number of questions, the post generates all the answers, or the post is divided into parts if the number of questions for the past period was the largest. In addition to asking questions, you can make suggestions to the project, for example, about new features or directions. This format also builds feedback and helps to improve all services. the most important thing is that it can not only help us but also you, as the offer and questions will help you focus on the tasks that the end-user wants to see.
TKEY-POOL (Tkeycoin pool)
We are completing the work and debugging of the official pool for Tkeycoin, this is a completely new approach for mining Tkeycoin. The pool will feature higher performance and stable architecture, a light interface, and objective commissions. A pool is a highly loaded system that works 24/7/365, it turns out that such a product hides a sufficient number of lines of code and, most importantly, is built on a reliable architecture that can withstand +50000–100000 miners, not to mention the number of connected devices for this number of miners. A cryptocurrency pool is a combination of the hardware power of many miners at once to increase the probability of finding a block. The reward for a block obtained by the pool is distributed among all participants. The TKEY pool is developed taking into account the features of the Tkeycoin blockchain, including multi-blockchain, transaction model, hashing, blocks, and other nuances that are an upgrade of the blockchain among others. Together with the pool, the TKEY network is being tested: high loads, attacks, and other tests that show positive results, proving that the TKEY blockchain can work under any loads and is protected from attacks. Our task was to: 1. Stable system for handling high loads; 2. Adaptation pool for any software; 3. Connecting any hardware for mining cryptocurrency Tkeycoin; 4. Fair remuneration calculation; 5. Security. The main goal is for any user, regardless of the software and hardware used, to be able to connect to Tkeycoin mining via a pool. The first releases will be accompanied by a simple user-friendly interface, easy connection, instructions for various mining programs that can be connected. In future releases, we will optimize the operation of the pool, add new features, as well as tracking functions and other nice things. any suggestions from miners and the community are interesting to us and will be implemented, so do not hesitate to send your suggestions after the launch.
https://preview.redd.it/fjy2dkanwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=99dedd6aa59ae7eb4d585d2ef1ddae4cc6dd50f9 Work on the TkeySpace mobile app is also not standing still. We will soon release updates for TkeySpace on Android and iOS. This release is a complete transition to the most stable version of the mobile wallet. This means that after the update, even with the largest changes, the user will not need to completely reinstall or restore to use the new features, as before, just update the app via the AppStore or GooglePlay. Between the previous update has been a sufficient amount of time, on average, updates are released once a month. This update will be one of the major ones. We are finishing work on the code to prepare the app for the new features that will be available this year. Besides, we are improving the app’s logic, data processing speed, optimizing the code, restoring order, and preparing for the global market.
Exchange, purchase of cryptocurrency and withdrawal to the Debit/Credit Card
The development team is finishing work on optimizing the SWAP service. Regardless of updates, it is available in working mode 24/7/365. The team is working on improving the operation, optimizing the page, changing the interfaces, improving navigation, and speeding up query processing. This update is also among the upcoming ones, along with the pool, mobile wallets, and other news that will excite.
In the network statistics section, there are several sections that will be fixed — this is the hash rate of the network and the volume of Tkeycoin. Now the volume of Tkeycoin is displayed by mTKEY, and the graph itself indicates M TKEY, the user may incorrectly understand the volume of transactions in the network, so, given the current volume, it is advisable to switch the display to TKEY, and in the future switch to mTKEY for large volumes.
This issue has become the cause of mass discussions, disputes, investigations, the subject of memes, kitchen, and online conversations, that just did not happen, that TKEY is not taken anywhere, someone made guesses that we are waiting for everyone to run away, or TKEY is a world conspiracy and around some actors, you can write a book or shoot a great series, not worse than Breaking Bad. Jokes, jokes, but the question is serious. Since the 4th quarter of last year, the company has been actively working on the issue of listing, prepared the necessary platform for this, held several meetings, negotiations, released the necessary products, figured out various transfers of funds to the blockchain, worked out many small things, many major issues that were behind the scenes. Everything is ready, and it’s time to start soon. This will be a surprise, believe it or not, and we will meet you on the stock exchanges :)
What other plans does the company have?
Enabling payment at retail outlets
After entering the exchange, we will actively engage in connecting payments to implement them and link them to TKEY. The plan, strategy, and legal component are ready.
This implies the development of payments and services that will expand the use of digital currencies in the commercial sphere. Application on the territory of Russia will depend on the Federal law on the CFA, in any case, we plan to analyze the law, after its release, to find a legal way to implement payments based on blockchain and digital assets. Therefore, until the law is released, we are keeping this initiative in the future, and we will work on other jurisdictions that will support it. We left some plans behind the scenes, because they will make the greatest impact on the market and the value of our asset, and this — likes silence.
What useful materials will be released soon?
How to effectively use the SWAP service together with the exchange and purchase of cryptocurrency from a Bank card?
We will tell you in detail how to use these 2 services, how to save on payments and purchases, how to exchange tokens that are very difficult to exchange, how to quickly get money for them to the card, and much more.
The law CFA
Our opinion about the law of cryptocurrencies in Russia, what to pay attention to, what to prepare for, how to act if there is a complete ban. Let’s talk about legal nuances and banking practices.
In this material, we will talk about the blockchain, analyze the issues of the system, expand the questions on attacks, payment processing, and touch on the system of multiple chains. The article suggests your suggestions, perhaps someone will have ideas that we will implement in the chain. At the end, Don’t forget to ask questions in the comments or send suggestions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) we will be happy to respond and consider your requests for any of our services. Collaboration, feedback, help us make the whole platform better. Thank you for being with us! Until new meetings, stay tuned for news, updates, because the most unexpected news comes spontaneously.
Exchanges The best way to support XRP is to buy/sell XRP directly with your local currency, not with USDT, ETH, LTC, or BTC. Available XRP pairs - AUD, BRL, CAD, CNY, EUR, GBP, IDR, INR, JPY, KRW, MXN, PHP, RUB, THB, TRY, UAH, USD, ZAR. You can find the complete list of XRP exchanges and supported XRP/fiat pairs Here.
bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin Halves every 4 years. Price is function of demand, with consistent demand, and no speculation or outside influence, price grows at 19% per year. 1 -> 2 -> 4 -> 8 is a 19% rate of growth. Volatility is the two-way function of price. Bitcoin is computationally fixed, more predictable than Gold, Fiat, or any other asset known to man - fixed at 19%, with flat demand, flat counter-party influences, 100% unalterable, 100% auditable, 100% known. Regardless of opinion, Bitcoin is more fixed and unalterable, at 19% annualized growth, than any other major store of wealth, in existence, ever - everything flat, society goes linear. What is also fixed? Time. X. Bitcoin is Time when graphed. Meaning, all volatility is due to either change in demand or change in outside influence, never, ever a change in Bitcoin - it is the pole upon which Archimedes stands. Now let's think of the counterpoint, and how Bitcoin is used. For this we will get deep and practical. Bitcoin is not mana, you don't buy a little every day (that is dumb) : Bitcoin is a bank, a reserve. You buy a bunch of it, and devy it out as you deplete. So every new buyer of Bitcoin has some scaling function, whereby savings transfer into Bitcoin, until Maxed, and then if Income < Costs, they pinch out to deplete. The importance here is 19% is inferior to VC moneybags investing, the purchase of tools, the hiring of a tutor, or the micro-investing into side-hustles; but for the passive, index investor, it reigns supreme. Now let's get deeper. The square root of Bitcoin is South America, Africa, Asia, and the island nations - the colonialized, and oppressed. Is it America, is it Europe, is it Communist? Unimportant - it could be the distablization brought on by nature: in any country in which localized Fiat is untrusted, it is setup to pay tribute to a colonial power (such as propagation of USD), or run risk of being debased. The cost of a 51% attack is X, reward more than. Imagine outsiders bring war to Iraq to remove a dictator and acquire oil. In such a case, currency gets debased, commerce halted, and it is the unintentional consequence of a side-quest. People of Iraq live and die, accidentally trampled without malice or profit. Bitcoin saves that. Now if colonization is an objective, and part of the business plan for say the US government is to destabilize Argentina, Turkey, or whatnot - with the hope either they choose to propagate USD, or they pay USD men to provide "insurance" and if not their money gets debased - kinda like a mob, everyone needs a bit of mafia in their life, if only to discourage future suitors. In the event Bitcoin is known, a tortured society can collectively starve-off profits; making those that make money by charging a Colonial Management Fee, make less. Less expectation, less investment. All peoples within a danger zone for rapid debasement can optionally support a known mafioso, Bitcoin, or in the event the destabilization is a cause of nature, their nearest sovereign-currency provider (EU, US, GBP). Once one currency is debased, it is unwise for a population to 'invest' in its replacement. Either it could be contrived, or at a minimum it is untested. Investing in ones local currency should be done at a minimum "whatever you can afford to lose", if it faces significant risk of debasement, or conversely could be used as a hidden-payoff to mobsters. Alternatively one can think of holding local speculative currency as a 'charitable giving', of sorts. Here, Bitcoin is merchandising. Here, Bitcoin is daily spending. The wealth of this customer is paltry, the need sudden, and excessively sharp. They are a refugee - but unlike a migrational refugee, they can flee 'over the internet' so to speak. So, if ones supply chain remains intact, in theory one could swap Debased Dollar for Bitcoin, without any economic loss - loss in the progress of things, stalling of good transfers, services rendered, etc - this is not possible with USD, EU, GBP - sovereign dollars require approval - you got to pay a fee, get a license, ask permission, beg approval to use currency of outside sovereigns. And what is your boss to think if you go cheating on him with USD? Maybe USD don't want to get into that mess. Maybe USD wants to allow a grace period post-breakup so that Angry X Dictator don't get the wrong idea. But not Bitcoin. Now this utility, or function of Bitcoin - Bitcoin is a first-mover into any population experiencing currency destabilization. But, we got a problem. Bitcoin is volatile, both up and down. This customer must sell daily, and must purchase suddenly, unexpectedly - price can not be a factor. So now you are seeing the two-sides of the coin of value. One is shook demand from localized destabilization, and the second is a savings vehicle for the passive investor. Those in shook need to minimize downside risk and high merchant utility, while those into passive saving move large amounts in, slowly, locking it down for a 4 year holding cycle. Thus, savers can benefit those in distress by focusing on stabilizing price, into 4-year cycles, while those in distress can benefit themselves and reduce global tension by avoiding 'puppet currencies' of no material strength. 19% is the flat demand growth rate - 0% population growth, 0% inflation, 0% raises, arrested technological progress, if cost-of-thriving index stays flat, along with cost of living, and Bitcoin demand stays fixed, and price if perfectly predicted, Bitcoin grows at 19%, annually. If one presumes a combined population + tech development + inflation of more than 0, then Bitcoin grows more. But this is misleading... Bitcoin consumes $6.5 Bil annually at a $10,000 value. This is a fixed number, not a percentile. If one says Monetary Growth is 5%... of 20 Trillion, then that is 1 T more dollars. Monetary Growth does not increase war, but it does increase funding for passive investments, like Bitcoin - for the Savers, Bitcoin is a luxury good; like 401k percentages or vacationing. You buy Bitcoin with the expectation of 100% rate of return per US Presidential Cycle (19% per annum). If New Money is saved in Bitcoin at a rate of 1%, then a 1 T increase is a $10 B increase in demand, stabilizing at over a 100% increase in price. So we got: A fixed amount of Old Money, moving into Bitcoin for passive investing with expected rates of 19% - this is done slowly, with a 4 year horizon. This money has extended time preference and sophistication, allowing it to stabilize price. And then we got a % of New Money, which is more like a luxury good, that moves into Bitcoin with a leveraging of easily 100 to 1. This money would be highly volatile, as it would be most like to come out all-at-once after a negative experience from a short trial. And lastly, one has the distressed, who have but a short time to learn about Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, and have every merchant with whom they interact with accept Bitcoin - to achieve peace. For them, mild fluctuations are like a grocery store increasing their prices 8x over a year, and USD is off-limits - Bitcoin is a necessity, must be instantly accessible, and must be instantly spent. Downward movement of 10% in any given month, or any given week, might prove hazardous for business. Prices, and exchange rates, could still be established in USD, but the actual exchange of value can occur in Bitcoin.. Remember, it is not USD Bitcoin is replacing, but Debased Economies Off-limits to USD - refugees, who want to build instead of migrate, and couldn't before without transferable money. Bitcoin fell 80% in 1-year, which can destroy a business, but a New Money investor of 2-years should of at most lost only 50%, and presumably after 4-years they should up - and all Old Money investors should be up, if not partly cashed out with 1,000% returns. So now we got this weird dynamic where as Bitcoin becomes less negatively volatile annually, it becomes more attractive for New Money, and as it becomes less volatile monthly, it becomes more attractive for the distressed - this new demand creates prices jumps, benefiting Old Money, whose responsibility it is to sell and rebuy intelligently to amplify profits, but also in order to increase the long-term usefulness of Bitcoin. For the coming US Presidential Cycle, we may aim to reduce total negative volatility from 80% to 50%, over a multiyear period and monthly negative volatility from 60% to 30%. The more linear the growth, the more exponential the demand. Old Money must strive to stabilize the price of Bitcoin, both for themselves and for the hurting. Creating price stability within Bitcoin is charity. It is Kindness. It is a social love. If anyone reads that, hope they enjoyed the journey. Bitcoin 1776
After ICON the next and only ICO, Don Tapscott is an advisor for, Jibrel Network - Why I think its the sleeping giant and why you should have a look at this project. Thoughts below.
Jibrel Network Settle in boys, this is a long one. I am about to tell you about one of the most promising projects/ICOs of this year, the Jibrel Network. What does it do? Essentially, the Jibrel Network provides currencies, equities, commodities and other financial assets and instruments as ERC-20 tokens and puts them on the blockchain. It does that to provide incomparable liquidity and decrease friction costs. Additionally, it automates certain processes such as dividend distribution and so on. The Jibrel Network has a native token, known as JNT, which will be used as the ‘liquid’ underlying asset of the Jibrel AG fund’s portfolio. Additionally, it is a deflationary currency because every time JNT is used as jGas (transfer of ownership; purchase of tokenized assets) it is burned. >Wait, I’ve heard this before, with LAtoken and Veratesium, this is a tried and tested scam. Previous attempts at the market didn't have what Jibrel have – smart regulation and insured 2-way (i.e. physical asset to tokens, tokens to physical assets liquidity). All financial assets will be tokenized as programmable CryDRs, which would entail no regulatory or legal risks whatsoever. And, why does this make it better than all the others? Due to the Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations involved in trading real-world assets, there also exists an investor registry that only allows for certain CryDRs to be traded amongst addresses that have been verified by Jibrel. Meaning that, for example, only brokers and fund managers can interact in certain ways with the network. In the traditional economy, regulation is placed around certain asset classes to manage fraud, market, credit and systemic risk. Currencies, commodities and securities all have different regulations across different jurisdictions. The Jibrel Network team has worked (and continues to work) tirelessly with their regulatory advisors to translate real-world regulation into smart regulation (Solidity code). These things will update in near real time as regulation laws and rules amend, so will the smart contract. >Pfft, where’s the proof? Well they’re bringing out a MVP usable by any type of user. jWallet and jCash (or jFiat)! Any supposed Tether scams are now dead in the water as we have real, audited tokenized fiat currency. In 6 different forms, no less! Who audits this? The Swiss offices of PricewaterhouseCoopers (doing business under the brand PwC), one of the Big 4 auditing/accounting firms. They will check Jibrel’s position of financial performance and position, cash flows, and other subtle aspects of their financial activities. PwC audits will be public and sufficiently frequent (most likely biannual). The actual code itself? Already been audited by New Alchemy – leaders in smart contract auditing, so that’s all functional.1 jCash is simple enough, It’s Tether but legitimate and in 6 different currencies right off the bat. jUSD, jEUR, jCNY, jAED, jRUB and jGBP. Any fiat currency can be implemented (as long as there is enough demand to implement it). Additionally, Jibrel will always be able to cover their liabilities due to the 3-4x assets in excess of liabilities. Not only that, but the Jibrel DAO (when it activates) will self-regulate the fund through different rules and scenarios encoded in the smart contract – a completely decentralised, on-chain bank. The real work of art, jWallet The jWallet does all the transaction signing, all the key storage, etc. locally - you never have to share your private keys, they never leave your browser. You can even store them in the browser cache. It doesn't make sense to share your keys with a service (you login with email) - there are no benefits to that. It’s strange to store large sums of money in a Chrome extension. https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/22/with-ethereum-wallets-under-constant-attack-jibrel-network-decided-to-build-their-own/ But wait, there's more, when it is up and going, The Jibrel DAO will act as an artificial trading curb, meaning that if the price sinks too low too fast, the DAO will kick in and buy up any oversold JNT, which would equate to roughly 50%. Same thing if it rises too quickly, obvs whale pnd, its curbing it! But there’s only one real downside to that.. unfortunately, this won’t be implemented for quite a while. Target is Q4 2018 for DAO being implemented and a few months (could be up to 6 months) after to be really kicked into gear. Why waiting so long after implementation? Well that’s because DAO needs to build up a buffer to be safe during it’s operation, Jibrel devs are smart and they know DAO cannot be fully operational right off the bat without any serious precautions. >That sounds great, I’ll wait until after ICO when it dumps ;) No mate, not with this buying pressure. Jibrel is very investor focused (see partnerships) and will be listing itself on as many exchanges as possible, with two exchanges being in the top 5 in volume (The CEO,Yazan won't say which, most likely HitBTC and a mystery second). Additionally, new jCash will be rolled out all the time, every new currency would be a new audience that’s getting exposed to this company as stated above. But ultimately you don’t have to invest, they can do it with or without you. This is for banks and other financial institutions. With the infrastructure Jibrel is implementing, banks can save up to 25 billion dollars a year. . Banks will be able to interact with their own digital assets, completely free of all the legal hassle they had before, while still being perfectly above board. It’s also recession proof. Any trader convinced that another GFC is coming doesn’t have to be purely cash anymore. Its protected by reducing systemic risk in its ecosystem, (through separation, Close monitoring, regulation and risk assessment being the Basel III regulatory framework). Again don’t worry, this is all covered in its smart regulation. Also note the ICO is not paired with ETH like many ICO's. 1 ETH = x amount of tokens. Due to volatility of the tokens its ICO is pegged at 0.25 cents offer. So if ETH is high or BTC is high you will get more tokens. This makes much better sense as a token structure and why I believe it hasn't sold out yet, a lot of people are waiting in the sidelines. Now for the juicy part (in case previous parts weren’t juicy enough for you thirsty kids), the advisors and partnerships: They have freaking Eddy Zuaiter as an advisor, the ex-COO of Soros fund management chatting with them. The man who oversaw 2.5 billion dollars worth of trade positions joined jibrel because:
He sees Jibrel as an opportunity to learn more about the space
He sees Jibrel as an opportunity to directly be involved, help them be well capitalized, survive the bubble, and grow. He sees the potential to pull off an Amazon (his words).
We all know that Kin is a unique digital currency, that it has value and utility, and that the Kin Ecosystem, currently in development, is going to be big--very big. But let’s look back for a moment. In order to see the scope of what’s happening, and where we’re going, it might be useful to look back, at where we’ve been. Kin was started by the good folks at KIK Messenger. As Facebook and Google grew to gargantuan proportions, it became obvious to all that the old-school model of Advertisement Placement for monetization was becoming untenable for anyone other than the biggest and most entrenched of companies. Yes, the Facebooks and Googles of the world were doing fine with monetization via advertisements, and were busily scalping data from their users in a feeding frenzy to capitalize on the one asset they could sell… those users’ attention. While most users thought Facebook was designed to give the social media platform as the product, and that they themselves were the customers, the reality is far different. The truth is that the advertisers were the actual customers, and Facebook users were the actual product. Very much like the Matrix, isn’t it? We are fed a social media mental “pudding,” and in return we give Facebook hours and hours of our attention… which it then sells to the advertisers. Understandably, this realization came as a shock to those who were able to see and understand this revelation. Many users still do not grasp the reality of the situation, and are happily, mindlessly eating the pudding. Leaving aside the distasteful mental image this business model give us, it created a problem for up-and-coming, and smaller but established Social Media companies. The smaller SM operations were left in a bit of a financial quandary… advertisers were loathe to spend on smaller platforms, because the reach of the giant platforms was so large and all inclusive. The remainder were basically crumbs on the floor. From this basic problem… and the ensuing economic reality… came the idea for Kin. Monetization is a concept that no one really enjoys talking about. For most of us, we’ve come to accept that ads are a necessary evil that we pay attention to in order to receive content; at this point most of us simply grit our teeth and press on. No, I’m never ever going to buy that silly spray to cover up the smell of your poo, but go ahead, play the damned video ad… again. I digress. But what if there was a way to change the dynamic so that the SM platform user’s attention was no longer the product that got sold to monetize the operation? What if the user could sell his or her OWN attention, and be rewarded thusly? And what if there was a way to compensate developers and businesses who work in the ecosystem for this activity as well? What if the user actually became a rewarded participant in the engine that generated income? And was even able to generate income for themselves in the process? What if a system was designed to reward users, developers and investors, all at the same time? This is the basic premise of Kin. THE GENESIS of KIN In 2009, Kik Interactive was formed by a group of college students at the University of Waterloo, Canada, in order to create applications for mobile devices and smartphones. Soon thereafter, the Kik Messenger was launched. In it’s first fifteen days, Kik enrolled over one million users. Over the years, Kik has solidified itself as a strong niche player in the messaging app world. Initially, Kik monetized itself by placing advertisements, but realized over time that ad revenue might not be the best way to keep Kik in solvent. After several years of struggle, Kik embarked on an experiment and instituted a program called “Kik Points.” This program allowed Kik users to participate in a very basic and limited “earn and spend” program. The users would answer surveys, or watch videos, in order to “earn” Kik Points… which they could then spend on in-app programs like sticker packs or emojis. What the Kik folks saw was a very enthusiastic, large group of people working to earn, and then spend Kik Points, in a transactional rate and density that dwarfs that of every cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin. Kik then knew it was onto something. The team got to work, and after years of design, Kin was born. The Kin token was introduced into the crypto universe through an ICO (initial coin offering). The Basics of Kin Kin is the first cryptocurrency designed for mass-adoption and utility. It was engineered, specifically, to act as a currency to be used in millions of daily small and micro-transactions. In other words, it was a coin designed to be “spent” by the masses, not held by speculators. Kin is designed to reward people for using the coin. The Kin Rewards Engine (KRE) pays Kin to users and developers who contribute to the ecosystem. This does “inflate” the circulating supply of the coin, which in turn keeps the value of the individual coins in check, but in reality this is a core design component of Kin. Kin is designed to grow in value, but is designed to grow more slowly because of the extreme volatility witnessed in the growth of other coins. This kind of volatility would destroy Kin’s ability to be used as a true currency. The KRE serves two purposes, then; to reward those who boost the ecosystem thought their efforts, and to moderate the extreme peaks and valleys that have plagued cryptocurrency since the invention of Bitcoin. Bitcoin, for example, has morphed into a “store of wealth” rather than an actual usable currency. It is “deflationary” in nature; in other words, the scarcity of it is the sole driver of it’s value. The high cost of Bitcoin transactions, extreme value fluctuations and slow processing speed all hinder its use as a true currency. Additionally, why would someone spend Bitcoin when it may appreciate significantly in a short period of time? We all have heard the story about the two pizzas that were bought with 40,000 BTC… which would make those two pizzas worth over $300 million dollars today. And why would a merchant accept a currency that might lose a large percentage of it’s value very quickly? With a deflationary, speculative currency like Bitcoin, swings of plus or minus 30 to 50% within a few days are not uncommon. Kin, on the other hand, is designed to be used and spent by millions of users. It’s value will also grow significantly, but that growth will be relatively stable, with few of the huge peaks and valleys we’ve all seen in other cryptocurrencies. This is directly due to the large initial supply of Kin tokens (756 billion) the large maximum supply (10 trillion) and the design of the KRE. Most people with any crypto experience see that 10 trillion figure (the maximum circulating supply of Kin) to be a huge detriment at first blush. This is because they haven’t grasped the need for that many tokens. Looking at it from the perspective of other crypto, 10T coins is a ludicrous, astronomical number of coins. And with any other coin, it would bake no sense. But Kin is unique. It’s a true currency, not a store of wealth. It is designed to create value growth through usage, not through speculative buying, selling and holding. When Kin reaches mass adoption, the larger supply of coins will keep the price of the coin relatively stable while it grows in value, and will significantly reduce volatility. Notice that I did not say that the large supply will reduce appreciation; it won’t. That’s because while Kin is designed to be an inexpensive coin, and should never experience the volatility of Bitcoin, that doesn’t mean it won’t gain and accumulate value. It most definitely will. There are no limits to that appreciation, and those who buy Kin now, while the price is well below 1/100ths of a cent, will see significant return on their investment. That opportunity, as significant as it is, is not going to last much longer, and will not be available again. Kin is designed to go against the “normal” crypto path of pump and dump. It is not designed for arbitrage trading. Again, it is designed for utility, to be earned and spent, unlike most cryptocurrencies. Kin is designed to be an inflationary coin, not a deflationary coin. In that, I mean that Kin, through the KRE, injects liquidity into the ecosystem and does not appreciate solely due to its scarcity. The KRE rewards those who have significant positive effect on the ecosystem by awarding Kin to those entities or people. If you develop an app that captures people’s imaginations and is wildly successful (think PokemonGo), and you’re using Kin to monetize that app, that effect on the Kin Ecosystem will be greatly rewarded with equivalent Kin. By injecting this liquidity into the ecosystem, the KRE rewards those who make the ecosystem work. This also tends to have an inflationary effect that slows the growth of the coin into a manageable upward trajectory, versus a hyperbolic, exponential increase. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is deflationary… which means that no new BTC will be brought into the BTC system, and its value is based solely on that perceived scarcity. Since it has no mass adoption or real utility, and it’s value can rise and fall very quickly in large amounts. People buy Bitcoin for two reasons only today; speculation, and movement of fiat currencies into other cryptocurrencies. Speculation is the reason most people get into cryptocurrencies; with the advent of Kin, that will no longer be the case. Once Kin begins mass adoption, the majority of people in cryptocurrencies will be in Kin, and will be using, earning and spending Kin without buying the coin on an exchange. They will not be speculators, they will be users. Speculation has been the name of the crypto game in the past, of course, but that is about to change. Speculation on crypto will become the minority use case, not the majority. Bitcoin will always have a place, obviously, but can you buy groceries with it? Can you pay your electric bill? Can you go out to eat using Bitcoin? No. Bitcoin will always be the first cryptocurrency, but it is not a mass-adoptable currency with any single, strong use case in its current form. Kin was designed with Bitcoin’s failings in mind. The question comes up: Will Kin ever be a truly valuable coin, even with a ten trillion coin supply? The answer is an emphatic YES, it will. It will never be a short-term investment; there will be no 10x tomorrow, or 100x next week. But for the patient, the growth is coming. For the long term HODLer, the rewards will be significant indeed. Let me explain why the Kin Foundation, in designing Kin, chose to make the circulating supply 10 trillion Kin tokens. Why are there 10 Trillion Kin? To be a true currency with mass adoption, used by millions of people, there needs to be a large amount of Kin available. Otherwise, in very short order, people would be using Kin in decimals. It was decided that people would rather earn and spend multiples of Kin (i.e., 1000 Kin or 500 Kin) versus decimals of Kin (i.e., 0.0001 Kin or 0.0005 Kin), as is now necessary with Bitcoin, Ethereum and many others. Note that Kin can also be used in decimal divisions, so that in the future, the value of Kin will never be limited by an inability to be used by the decimal. In order to tamp down the extremely volatile nature of many cryptocurrencies, a larger circulating and available supply is necessary. A balance was found at 10T where the supply is large enough to meet the needs of the millions of users, but was small enough to not interfere with the growth of value in the coin. The Kin Rewards Engine (KRE) is key to this balance. By injecting Kin liquidity into the ecosystem, it rewards those who enable and grow the system, but it also minimizes volatility and keeps value growth down to a sustainable, non-hyperbolic/non-exponential growth curve. In this, it both creates opportunity and eases fears of volatility, for users, developers and merchants alike. There are currently 756 billion Kin tokens in circulation; most of the remainder are held by the Kin Foundation for their own use, and for rewarding those who enable the ecosystem via the KRE. The KRE is schedule to begin operation in Q3 2018. As the value of Kin appreciates, the number of Kin injected via the KRE will change, though the total value will not. For this reason, the KRE stands to be in operation, injecting liquidity, rewarding innovation and ecosystem enhancement and controlling volatility for many, many years to come. In the end, 10 trillion coins will not be enough to satisfy the long term needs and desires of the masses. If 50 million people are using Kin, this works out to only 200,000 Kin available per user. Most early adoptecapitalists in the ecosystem hold many, many more than that. This eventual scarcity will drive the value of Kin up significantly; I won’t prognosticate how high. There is, however, no limiting factor. I am very bullish at this prospect… because of the last item, number 5. Metcalfe's Law shows the correlation between the usage of a telecommunications system, the size of it’s network, and its value. As the number of users grow, this law shows us that there is a direct correlation between the supply, the number of transactions per day, and the approximate value of that coin. This law follows closely the movement of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrency systems, and shows that Kin will benefit from mass adoption and millions of daily transactions from tens or hundreds of millions of users. Without a large supply, this would not be possible. The design of Kin requires 10 Trillion coins to be available to execute the plan. And the plan is to allow users, developers and investors to all reap the benefits of a vibrant and growing ecosystem. When there are hundreds of millions of users in the ecosystem, the value of Kin will be greater than most people can imagine. It’s an exciting time, to be sure! So we’ve looked at why the circulating supply is important, and why it’s different from other currencies. Let’s look at the center of why this works, the KRE. The Kin Rewards Engine: How it will disrupt Social Media monetization How often do you log onto YouTube, or Facebook, or any other Social Media site, and click on a video you’d like to see? Before the video starts, though, you are forced to watch an advertisement… maybe it’s something you want to know more about, but more often than not, it isn’t. What if someone was reading your chat messages and saw you were talking about buying new running shoes, and there’s the ad for that, placed right in your face. Currently, the harvesting of your personal and private conversations is real and ongoing… putting that aside (and that’s a wholly different problem that Kin solves), someone is making money by scraping your personal data off of private communications and browsing histories, creating ads that target your interests, and then forcing you to watch those advertisements. A bot is reading your data, intuiting your thoughts, and someone profiting off of you. George Orwell’s “1984” called this person “Big Brother.” The KRE puts an end to this exploitative monetization model. The advertiser compensates you directly for viewing that advertisement, or answering that ad, or for playing that game. You can then spend your Kin on spend opportunities like branded Gift Cards from hundreds of big named merchants like Amazon, McDonalds, and Best Buy, or the user can take their Kin to an exchange and sell it for the fiat currency of their choice, US Dollars, Euros, GBP or Yen. You can use your Kin to buy music, to view curated content, or to tip a content provider. Paywalls for online journalism will become a thing of the past. The KRE will reward the developer or person or company who placed the ad and contributed to the ecosystem. The user is allowed to contribute financially to content they value; instead of having their personal information sold to an advertiser. The user also can benefit financially for their own intellectual efforts and content creation. Businesses and developers will be able to easily move their Kin to exchanges to trade for fiat currency; this enables them to pay bills and salaries, and reinvest in other parts of their business. This also creates liquidity for exchange trading, which is an important part of the Kin Ecosystem. In this way, the KRE will rewards users, developers and investors who participate by adding value to the ecosystem. It will be an “open” ecosystem, allowing people to choose their use of Kin, whether it be purchases within apps, soft monetization via giftcards, or hard monetization via exchange trading for fiat currency. It may also become an option for game fans, hobby coders and enthusiasts to produce a living income via Kin. Why are there two types of Kin? Initially, Kin was designed to exist on a single blockchain infrastructure, the Ethereum Blockchain. Kin’s ICO was performed on the ETH Blockchain, and all Kin currently available to buy on exchanges are ERC20 tokens, built around Ethereum. Last year, Ethereum experienced significant delays in transaction times because of a game that had been built on the platform, called “CryptoKitties.” This game became very popular very quickly with Crypto fans, and in their exuberance, their usage crashed the Ethereum platform. The Kin Foundation realized that Ethereum, in its current form, was neither fast enough, nor robust enough to support the millions of users of Kin. Something had to be done. The Foundation decided to seek another blockchain for Kin. Something faster, stronger, and secure enough for the millions of users of Kin to have near instantaneous, secure transactions, no matter what. A couple of solutions were found: The Stellar Lumens blockchain (XLM) was chosen because of it’s transaction speed, utility and robust nature, and the Orbs blockchain, which can stand as a replacement if there is a problem with Stellar down the road. But what about exchanges? Kin on Ethereum can expect to be on many exchanges, and that access to liquidity that is essential to the success of the project. Kin on Lumens or on Orbs wouldn’t have widespread access to exchanges. This was a dilemma, The solution was to create the first ever two-blockchain cryptocurrency. All Kin bought and sold on exchanges is on the Ethereum blockchain. Kin to be used in the KRE, the Kik app and the Kinit app, and in the remainder of the Kin Ecosystem, will be based on the Stellar Lumens blockchain. The two types of Kin will be functionally identical in value, and freely interchangeable between the two blockchains. Basically, users will earn and spend Kin (XLM) in the Kin Ecosytem, due to Stellar’s robust design and fast transaction speed, but when they wish to move their Kin to an exchange, their Kin (XLM) will be exchanged for Kin (ETH) on a 1 for 1 basis prior to moving the Kin to the exchange of their choice for trading purposes. In this way, the needs of all Kin users will be met. And should Stellar be someday unable to meet the demands of mass adoption, the Orbs Blockchain, and others, are available for later development. In any event, this dichotomy of Kin will be mostly transparent to the user, and will not impact the value or the utility of the currency. The Kin Foundation has developed this dual-blockchain technology so that Kin can become the first mass-adopted, widely used cryptocurrency in the world. So, how much will Kin be worth? This is a big question. Many naysayers don’t believe Kin will appreciate significantly because of the large supply. This is based on their past experiences with Cryptos that don’t have utility and are simply speculative in nature. That’s not the case with Kin. To be completely honest, no one knows how much appreciation Kin will experience, or when it will reach a certain value. Here’s what we do know: Kin is positioned to be the first mass-adoption cryptocurrency in the world. Today, less than six million people worldwide own or use and cryptocurrency… this is an astonishingly low number. Kik, the messaging app behind Kin, has over 300 million registered users. Kin will be introduced first on the Kik app; Kik app users will have their first opportunities to earn and spend Kin before the end of 2018. So basically, once Kin is introduced on the Kik app later this year, the number of people using cryptocurrency worldwide will multiply many times. In one day. Kik will introduce crypto to tens of millions of users by the end of the year. As mentioned before, Metcalfe’s Law shows the relationship between a cryptocurrency value and the usage or transactions conducted by that coin, and the circulating supply. With current supply at 756 billion, and assuming transaction numbers in the 10 million per day range, Kin should be trading at around $0.01 per coin. Remember, however, that the KRE will be raising the circulating supply, and it may take some time to get to 10 million transactions per day. The value of Kin hinges on these numbers. In this, the beginning of the ecosystem, there is no foolproof way to estimate the value of Kin on any certain day. That said, there is no limit to the value of the coin, over time. None. Not circulating supply, or market capitalization, or anything else. No limit. In a decade, after the ecosystem has matured and is operating solidly, Kin could be worth…. Well, you fill in your own numbers. I have my opinions, and they are not limited by the number of coins, the market cap or anything else designed into the coin. For me, it all hinges on mass adoption and usage. Partnerships Kin has inked a number of partnerships that are exciting and will stand the ecosystem well into the future. Two recently announced partnerships are UNITY and BLACKHAWK NETWORK. UNITY Unity is the ultimate game development platform. It brings together developers and technical assets in ways that allow the creation of some of the world’s most popular digital games. There were 5 billion downloads of games made with Unity in Q3 2016 alone. Today, games that were made with Unity exist on 2.5 billion unique mobile devices. App and game developers will be able to insert Kin’s “5 minute SDK” (Software development kit) into the code of their app or game, and be monetizing their efforts with Kin in minutes. This “plug and play” approach makes the Kin Ecosystem and its rewards accessible to almost every developer, without the expense, time and research of developing a cryptocurrency. It truly is bringing cryptocurrency to the masses. Simply plug the “5 minute SDK” into your code, launch/update it, and within minutes, you’re creating revenue. Your users will also have earn/spend opportunities, and your game/app usage will grow dramatically. No more sharing your revenue with the Apple App Store, or with Google Play Store. This is a huge increase in revenue for developers. BLACKHAWK Blackhawk Networks is the leading gift card supplier. Simply put, if you’ve ever used a gift card, it most probably came from Blackhawk Networks; that’s how deep their market goes. Over 250 different branded gift cards will be available for developers to choose from for their users to select, based on their personal knowledge of the demographic. Is your app a traffic or mapping app? Perhaps your users would appreciate being able to earn Kin to buy a Dunkin Donuts cash card. Because, coffee. Is your app a fitness app? Perhaps a Nike gift card is more appropriate. Is it a game geared towards younger users? There’s always McDonalds. A dating app? How about a card for flower delivery? You can see that the options are endless. And don’t forget, the user AND the developer can choose to move their kin to other apps for other options, or to large cryptocurrency exchanges, where they can exchange their Kin for dollars, euros, etc. In this way, the ecosystem is enhanced, the cycle begins again, and the KRE continues to reward. Big Investors One of the things that first got me excited about Kin was learning that Kik and Kin were heavily invested in by Tencent, the Chinese behemoth company behind WeChat. I travel extensively to China for my day job, and it was an incredible realization to see that most Chinese don’t carry paper currency anymore. Hundreds of millions of Chinese use WeChat every day to purchase everyday things like food, movies, clothing and the like. WeChat connects to the user’s bank account, and instantaneously debits the accounts when the user makes a purchase. Many retail outlets and vending machines in China no longer accept credit cards, and fiat purchases are dwindling in number. Tencent’s interest in Kin is significant. Imagine Kik, using Kin, evolving into something similar… with hundreds of millions of people using Kin to conduct a significant amount of the economic transactions in their daily life! The adoption and utility numbers are mind boggling. Additionally, there are a number of heavy hitters in the Crypto space investment community. Union Square Ventures (USV) is an investment fund that has bet heavily on Kik, and thereby, on Kin. Other investments from USV include CoinBase, Koko, DuckDuckGo, CodeAcademy, DuoLingo, Wattpad, SoundCloud, Foresquare, Kickstarter, Meetup, Etsy, Disqus, Tumblr, Twitter and Zynga. As you can see, Kin is extremely well positioned, and the monetization opportunity Kin represents for these companies is being explored. Wrapping it all up in a big red bow… The TL;DR version is this: Kin is poised to become the most used cryptocurrency in existence in 2018. As the KRE comes online, Kin is introduced to the Kik Community, the discrete Kin app (Kinit App) is released, the 5-minute SDK is finalized, more partnerships come online, more and major exchanges offer Kin trading, and word spreads, expect the value of Kin to begin growing significantly. Kin currently sits near the bottom of the top 100 cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization, but the expectation is that Kin will rise towards the top of the top 100 in short order. As the value increases, so does market cap. Don’t make the mistake of thinking market capitalization limits the growth of Kin in any way; it will be the usage and mass adoption that will grow the value. As the crypto market recovers from the last few months, look for Kin to accelerate its growth as more partnerships and exchanges are announced. Once the KRE begins operations, the value of Kin will grow more quickly. I do not expect Kin ever be worth less than it is right now. The future for Kin is extremely bright. The Kin Foundation has much work left to do, but they are up to the task. Stay informed, and make sure your portfolio has Kin in it!
3 Stablecoins Enterprise Executives Need To Know And Why
img The digital asset space is undergoing a transformation and is trying to adapt to new and wider interest from large non-financial companies like Facebook, Samsung, Walmart, BMW, Shell and Nestle. Those companies, along with large financial services institutional players like J.P. Morgan, UBS and Fidelity, create enormous demand for tradable assets running on both public and private blockchains. These non-financial companies are usually less risk-averse than are the experienced traditional finance institutions. Thus, to embrace the new technology, they must rely on stable, reliable and scalable instruments like stablecoins. These new assets are ideally suited to service the expanding payments industry, a primary blockchain use case, and digital assets exchanges. Having price stability when trading and exchanging digital assets is important and effectively creates additional channels for global remittance as well as better price efficiency. But what are stablecoins in a nutshell? They are digital assets designed to have a stable value and extremely low volatility. Usually, they are backed by fiat currency – in most cases, the US dollar, digital assets or a physical commodity like gold or silver. There are projects that aim to completely remove the need for physical collateral and that rely on algorithms to dynamically adjust supply. The goal is that the price should not drastically fluctuate at any moment in time. Recently, several interesting stablecoin projects came out, and they are pushing the boundaries of digital assets. For example, the NYC-based exchange Gemini is issuing GUSD but also applying for an ATS (Alternative Trading System) license, which will create a unique opportunity for the GUSD to reach newly tokenized assets and private placements. Another two projects coming from the corporate world are JPM Coin, run by the powerhouse J.P. Morgan, and Fnality’s Utility Settlement Coin, which is backed by a plethora of banks like UBS, BNY Melon, Barclays and HSBC. Both seem to have the same aims, a similar reach and the same potential customers. It will be interesting to see if they cooperate at some point.
One of the most important benefits of stablecoins is that, if widely adopted by a large number of crypto exchanges, they create an opportunity for price hedging and risk management that is several times cheaper than hedging versus fiat. Currently, the most used in trading stablecoin is Tether. The USDT is pegged to the US dollar and widely used to create crypto markets on more than 25 of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges. Founded in 2014 by the founders of the Bitfinex exchange, Tether is now the sixth most liquid crypto asset, with a market cap of $3.9 billion. The asset is available mostly on crypto exchanges that don’t have the New York-based BitLicense and reside mostly outside the US. img Recently, Tether was in the news when the New York Attorney General started a case against Bitfinex and its Hong Kong founding company iFinex for using Tether reserves to mask a missing $850 million. Strangely, this high-profile investigation had minimal effect on Tether’s stability. It dropped to $0.85 but recovered to its usual dollar parity of $0.99 – $1.01. Being vital to the crypto trading ecosystem, Tether aims to be as widely available as possible. It is available on numerous networks like OMNI (Bitcoin), ERC20 (Ethereum) and Tron. To get a sense of how fragile everything is, last week Poloniex wanted to move $50 million between networks. However, instead of printing the needed amount, it issued $5 billion in new tethers, which surprised the whole market. Eventually, it was made clear that this was an issue with the decimals, or what the trading world knows as “fat fingers”. img Why it is important: Considered by many to be the main driver behind the bull run of Bitcoin’s price, Tether is vital for the crypto community because it is widely spread and adopted by exchanges. It makes up 75% of the total Bitcoin trading market, so it is also regarded as probably the biggest liability in the industry. Many experienced traders are wondering what would happen to the Bitcoin price and volatility if USDT availability is restricted. The interested parties will watch closely on July 29th, which marks the next appearance in the New York courtroom.
Facebook Libra Coin
The stablecoin that has taken all the attention lately comes from Facebook and is a vital instrument in the Libra Association’s plan for its new global payment infrastructure. Facebook’s grand vision is to establish a global payment network among the 18 million merchants on its platform and among its 2.6 billion users. Interestingly, the first companies invited to the Libra Association formation all seem familiarly related; well, you don’t start something that big with complete strangers, do you? Maybe the overall goal is to replicate the WeChat/Tencent model in the western world but instead of using CNY, Libra plans to use a basket of low-volatility assets (bank deposits and government securities) denominated in multiple currencies like USD, GBP, EUR and JPY. Last week, its co-creator, David Marcus, was in front of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee, answering tough questions about regulation, trust and privacy. Generally, the Senate and Congress were supportive of the innovation and technology direction that will position the US as the leader in payments. However, they remain highly skeptical of the governance and execution of the Libra project in relation to handling data privacy. With fresh memories of 2008’s financial crisis, most members of Congress were asking themselves, “What will happen if Libra goes down and we have to bail it out?” Which leads to the question: How do you bail out the finances of 2.6 billion people? Another concern is the fact that the governing body of the Libra Association is being established in Switzerland. This creates the possibility of regulatory arbitrage between US and Swiss laws. For example, securities lawyers in the US might consider the Libra token to be a security, which might not be the case for their Swiss colleagues. With all the signs of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) or Money Market funds, this can’t be too far. The Libra stablecoin reserve will grow based primarily on two sources: the investors who will initially buy the Libra Investment Token ($LIT) and any other retail users who would convert any type of fiat to use the payment network. In comparison to another stablecoin issued by a large corporation (J.P. Morgan’s coin), the Libra carries a different sentiment. When J.P. Morgan announced its JPMC, nobody reacted too harshly. Of course, J.P. Morgan doesn’t have the same privacy issues that Facebook does and is generally known to do well in exactly this: banking services with currencies. An interesting use for the Libra network, once live, will be to serve as the Layer 2 network to permissionless protocols like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This way, the open and trustless networks can communicate/exchange value and assets with the Libra permissioned stablecoin. Why it is important: Libra is moving waters in DC. This last week, the President tweeted, US Treasury Department Secretary Steven Mnuchin held a press conference and two days were spent in Washington with the Senate and Congress. One thing is clear: cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and blockchain received prime-time attention. In terms of what comes out of Libra, only time will tell. The sentiment is that it will be heavily regulated, maybe closer to being a bank. Thus, the Libra token will look like CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).
Building on the Ethereum protocol, the team at MakerDao created Dai to be a stable and decentralized currency fueling the new wave of DeFi (Decentralized Finance) applications. It uses an instrument known as Collateralized Debt Position (CDP), which allows you to lock your Ether assets into their smart contract and receive a loan denominated in Dai from the MakerDao system. In essence, the Dai is pegged to the US dollar but backed by Ether. Having Dai on the Ethereum protocols enables many financial services applications which otherwise wouldn’t exist due to the cryptocurrencies’ high volatility. Having Dai issuance and usage completely open is key to trustless financial services. Currently, many discussions are taking place about the protocol stability fee. This is the interest rate, currently at 20.5%, that all users must pay back to the system when closing their CDP positions. One might argue that this is too high and the current CDPs are overcollateralized. It seems like this is true. The current collaterization ratio is around 390%. For $81 million in debt, there is $320 million in collateral. img The Dai is an important instrument in the DeFi ecosystem built on Ethereum. Currently, it is being used on protocols like dYdX, enabling decentralized margin trading; 0x Protocol, the open-source marketplace for crypto tokens; Uniswap, the exchange for swapping ERC20 tokens; Dharma, the open protocol for building apps that allow for the borrowing and lending of digital assets; and many more. There are three main issues of which Dai users must be aware: Why it is important: Nevertheless, piece by piece, the Open Finance infrastructure, with stablecoins at its core, is being built and is “eating up financial services” as we know them. Slowly but surely, all the existing financial tools will have their own open sources and trustless tokenized equivalents. A growing concern about stablecoins is how they could be classified by agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For example, Basis’s stablecoin, despite raising $133 million, couldn’t escape the SEC classification as a security and had to shut down. Depending on how one reads the current regulation, one could classify the stablecoins as "swaps" under the CFTC regulation or as "demand notes" under the SEC. If you talk to experienced securities lawyers, the answer is always “it depends”. Still, similar to other markets in which we saw interesting and innovative financial instruments, not all stablecoin projects will survive. The winner will be the one with the most user adoption, highest volumes, largest liquidity and lowest volatility. Last but not least, it should operate within an approved regulatory framework which will guarantee exchange listings and wider organic exposure. It will be interesting to see if Facebook’s Libra receives regulatory approval, as this might pave the way for the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF. img
The Dow rose 617.70, or 2.50%, to 25,366.43, the Nasdaq gained 208.89, or 2.95%, to 7,291.59, and the S&P 500 advanced 61.61, or 2.30%, to 2,743.78. The S&P 500 confidently extended weekly gains by 2.3% on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he sees current interest rates "just below" neutral. That proved to be a rally point because the language Mr. Powell used early last month indicated a view that the fed funds rate was "a long way from neutral." Fed Chair Powell added that there is no preset policy path, and the Fed will be data-dependent in its decision making, which pleased investors. By highlighting risks, though, that included previous rate increases, trade disputes, and Brexit/EU political uncertainty, the market chose to read between the lines that the Fed chair isn't wedded to three rate hikes in 2019. Mr. Powell's perceived dovish remarks sent bond yields and the dollar lower. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.6% to 96.84, the 2-yr yield fell three basis points to 2.80%, and the 10-yr yield slipped one basis point to 3.04%. Regarding trade disputes, investors remain hopeful that some kind of agreement can be struck between the U.S. and China to forestall further protectionist trade measures. There is a burgeoning belief that President Donald Trump might aim to keep a floor of support under the stock market by striking a more conciliatory tone in his Saturday meeting with China President Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, it remains a speculative trade given President Trump's tough-minded tariff position. Back to the stock market, the S&P information technology (+3.4%), consumer discretionary (+3.2%), and health care (+2.5%) sectors provided strong support for the broader market. The heavily-weighted tech sector welcomed a solid showing from heavyweights AAPL, MSFT, V, MA, which rose between 3.7% and 4.8%. AMZN and UNH jumped 6.1% and 3.6%, respectively, with the latter rising to a record close. Also, the cyclical transport and chip stocks had noteworthy performances, evidenced by the strong gains within the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+2.5%) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.3%). ALK outperformed with a gain of 5.6% after Cowen raised its ALK price target to $84 from $80. Chipmaker Micron (MU 38.71, +1.71) rose 4.6% after it said earnings were tracking towards the higher-end of its outlook and was very pleased with the progress on tariffs. Conversely, the utilities (-0.1%), real estate (+0.9%), and consumer staples (+1.0%) groups finished at the bottom of the sector standings. Among the noteworthy gainers was W, which rose 14.5% after it said its direct retail sales for the recent five-day holiday weekend were up 58% compared to last year. Also higher was CRM, which rose 5% after the cloud software company reported better than expected third quarter results and raised guidance for 2019. Among the notable losers was WDC, which slid 1% after the company announced that CFO Mark Long will step down to "pursue opportunities as a private equity investor." Also lower was TIF, which dropped about 12% after the luxury goods retailer's sales lagged Street forecasts. Comparable store sales grew just 3% excluding foreign exchange, largely due to a decrease in spending by Chinese tourists. European stocks were slightly higher Wednesday, as investors attempted to decipher conflicting signals over the potential for a reprieve in the U.S.-Sino trade dispute. The mainland Chinese markets ended the day higher by more than 1 percent each. The Shanghai composite rose 1.05 percent to 2,601.73 while the Shenzhen composite advanced 1.399 percent to 1,355.38. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.22 percent in late-afternoon trade.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.7% at 96.74, on track to surrender its gains from the past two sessions. The Dollar Index was on course to build on its recent string of gains, but a midday slide took place as participants reacted to comments from Fed Chairman Jay Powell, who spoke at the Economic Club of New York. Granted, the Fed Chairman said that financial stability vulnerabilities are at a moderate level, but he also said that interest rates are "just below" the range that is perceived as neutral.
EUUSD: +0.89% to 1.1384
GBP/USD: +0.77% to 1.2841
USD/CAD: -0.31% to 1.3252
U.S. Treasuries ended Wednesday on a mixed note. The cash session started with modest losses that were widened slightly during the first three hours of the session. However, the entire complex climbed to highs in immediate response to the release of Fed Chairman Jay Powell's remarks that were delivered at the Economic Club of New York. Market commentators were quick to point out that Chairman Powell said that interest rates are "just below" neutral, but *Chairman Powell said that rates "remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy." *
2-yr: -3 bps to 2.80%
5-yr: -3 bps to 2.86%
10-yr: -1 bp to 3.04%
30-yr: +1 bp to 3.33%
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, continuing a recent run of losses, after U.S. crude inventories rose for the 10th week in a row.
Energy Settlement Prices
January Crude Oil futures fell $1.41 (-2.73%) to $50.2/barrel
December Natural Gas $0.48 higher (11.27%) at $4.74/MMBtu
December RBOB Gasoline settled $0.02 lower (-1.41%) at $1.4/gallon
December Heating oil futures settled $0.02 lower (-1.06%) at $1.87/gallon
Agriculture Settlement Prices
Dec corn settled $0.04 higher at $3.61/bushel
Dec wheat settled $0.03 higher at $5/bushel
Nov soybeans settled $0.14 higher at $8.91/bushel
Metals Settlement Prices
Dec gold settled today's session up $10.20 (0.84%) at $1223.5/oz
Dec silver settled today's session $0.24 higher (1.71%) at $14.31/oz
Dec copper settled $0.07 higher (2.57%) at $2.79/lb
The rampant buying has lifted the value of the entire market by a whopping 16% since this time yesterday to US$141.8 billion according to Coin Market Cap.
Bitcoin: $4,319.56 (24hr: +14.43%)
Ripple: $0.39 (24hr: +11.83%)
Ethereum: $123.93 (24hr: +15.06%)
Nasdaq Composite +5.6% YTD
S&P 500 +2.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.6% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.3% YTD
DVMT announces potential cybersecurity incident
DIS announces semi-annual cash dividend of 88c per share
Investors will receive Personal Income and Spending for October, PCE Price Index for October, FOMC Minutes for November, weekly Initial and Continuing Claims, and Pending Home Sales for October. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took0.31seconds.
Herriot Lux Pet Data Unification Protocol (PUP) - Concept - White Paper - Petcoin (PETC)
Openning up a discussion and peer review to challenge and question the concept Herriot Lux Inc, a not-for-profit organisation based in Melbourne, Australia, have developed since January 2018. The ERC20 token Petcoin (PETC) is a utility token that is a driver of the ecosystem we are building. Using a suite of applications addressing four problems:
Poor horizontal transfer of pet health data.
Lack of hybrid stablecoin payment system to allow cross-border settlement of pet insurance globally.
High entry requirement for quality veterinary practice management software.
Poor coverage of basic health care to pets owned by owners on restricted budgets.
One of the choke points in veterinary data management is client data friction between clinics, clinicians, specialists, referral clinics and laboratories, all attempting to address patient problems with incongruous and often digitally incompatible data. What we are attempting to do with PETC is to solve this problem by creating a mobile pet owner-facing data storage app which seamlessly integrates and displays pet medical data from multiple vet clinics, specialty centers and laboratories. In Australia, there are a handful of professional veterinary software management programs (Rx Works, CHS, VetlinkSQL, IDEXX Cornerstone, Henry Schein). Most are proprietary and incompatible with other software. Some veterinarians use in-house ad hoc software systems. It is not uncommon for new clients at a clinic to present with multiple pages of historical data, often inconclusive or vague with respect to diagnoses and treatments. What we are attempting to create is a digital data management system for veterinary patient health records, stored within an app that is free to use, authorizes the pet owner as custodian of the data and allows seamless integration and updates from other veterinary sources (specialists, laboratories, prior clinics). The driving impetus to pull pet data toward the pet owner’s app (and this drive adoption) is peace of mind arising from having cogent and integrated veterinary records on the single app. Pet owners will thus request and thus legally procure relevant data from their veterinary provider without compromising veterinary records or confidentiality. Blood results, radiographic and CT results, diagnoses, and medical therapies can be procured through pet owner request. For startup clinics, the app also functions competitively as a fully operational veterinary practice management software (VPMS). The app is currently being implemented as a beta app with CHS (Ciderhouse), a No. 2 VPMS based in Melbourne and operations worldwide. Starting in January 2018, we have also been working on CHS integrating our app with Petsure insurance underwriting. This feature will hopefully be rolled out in 2020. The PUP app features Petsure insurance underwriting, incorporated through Ciderhouse's CHS software. Insurance premiums and veterinary payout settlements will be done via a Herriot Lux proprietors stablecoin, provisionally called PUP. The advantage of using a utility token as a hybrid stablecoin for settlements of insurance premiums and payments is that they allow immediate, secure, decentralised, low fee payments across borders. In addition to using Petcoin (PETC) obtained through the app as a form of Pet Savings, tethered to Australian Dollars. Petcoin can be earned in a variety of ways, including being a petsure.com.au pet insurance policy holder and an amount of Petcoin given when taking out cover for the first time or during policy renewal. This Petcoin can be redeemed at market rate to contribute to insurance gap costs for treatments and consultations and the Vet being paid in Australian Dollars. Balance tracking through the mobile app would display a Tethered Value (value amount of fiat currency used to obtain Petcoin) and a Market Value (value that can be attained for PETC on digital exchanges). In the event that the market value becomes lower than the tethered value, the mobile app user can still access the value as is held reserve by Herriot Lux. A tokenised ecosystem has all the features of fiat without the high fees associated with other fiat payment methods. With users in multiple countries, Herriot Lux would be able to settle premiums and payouts immediately without waiting for bank settlement. Initially tethered to the AUD$, but over time would be weighted against other currencies including the US$ and GBP£. The advantage of tokenised hybrid stablecoin settlements of insurance premiums and payments is that they allow immediate, secure, decentralized, low fee payments across borders. Enabling Vets to accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets and being paid in Australian Dollars, with PUP facilitating the conversion. Most VPMS software are limited to Western country based veterinarians, with poorer countries relying on open-source software such as MS Excel, etc. A low cost veterinary practice management software (VPMS) oftware would be incorporated into the app as an add-on feature, either through an in-house VPMS or use of existing VPMS such as CHS through software licensing agreement. Our medium term goal is to develop PUP into its own blockchain amalgam. A public/private chain for pet data including genealogical lineage validation, genome data an immutable memorialisation enshrining an animals social media content alongside medical history. On top of the aforementioned features. For further detail our White Paper can be viewed here
Slightly different flavour here, which I hope will be insightful to those who take the time to read. Tonight I'm going to talk about my learnings in this market so far; my biggest mistakes; how you can avoid making them yourself; and the strategy I intend to follow from now on. It’s a long old read, but it contains months worth of knowledge, which could only be gained from first-hand experience. So pour yourself a drink, settle in, and let me take you through a brief history of my first two months in crypto.
TL;DR: Been in crypto 2 months, after years trading forex. Learnt a lot, and passing on the knowledge. Hope it helps some of you to become better investors.
CHAPTER 1: New market; new opportunity
I came into crypto with a real excitement. Finally a market that resonates with me. The ability to buy into something I believe in - something that could change the world for the better - and to make money along the way. I was excited that I could apply my trading background, something that not many in the market possess, to my advantage. I was excited at the prospect of being on the curve of early adoption, in a market that had demonstrably meteoric potential. But I was patient. I knew that I would be risking a substantial amount of money in this space, and potentially other peoples’ too, so I had to approach it sensibly. I was going to invest (hold long-term) the vast majority and day trade just a small portion. I spent many weeks researching before considering pulling the trigger even once. I didn’t come into this without a plan. But looking back on it now, it really was only scratching the surface on what a serious investment strategy should be.
CHAPTER 2: Early Strategy
In brief, my plan was to research a load of coins that I’d heard have good potential – solid projects which make unique & warranted use of blockchain technology; are disruptive to their industry; are developed by a competent & active team; and are backed by a loyal community. I shortlisted maybe 40 coins through articles, videos and general conversation, and I added them to my watchlist. Admittedly I became a bit lax in completing the deep level of research I told myself I’d do for each – scrutinizing the whitepaper became skimming the whitepaper, which then became watching a video analysis, which then became “oh that sounds interesting I’ll keep an eye on it”. But this was just a watchlist. And still an educated one.
I knew that I wanted to wait for an inevitable dip in Bitcoin’s value to enter the market, but it just wasn’t coming. $6k, $8k, $10k… the bullish momentum couldn’t be tamed. Was I missing out? Was Bitcoin going to continue its parabolic move while I sit here waiting for a dip that could never come?
LEARNING 1: There are an unlimited number of opportunities
At this stage I was ready to get involved, and I’d scouted a few alt coins that had good technical entry points approaching. Do I need to keep waiting for a good Bitcoin price even when there’s a good alt price? In short, if you’re confident enough about a trade, it doesn’t really matter what price you pay to get the BTC (or other major alt coin) needed to trade it, as long as you believe that your trade will outweigh any potential drop in Bitcoin’s value. If your trade goes up 100% and BTC’s value drops 50%, at that point you’re break even. Plus if you keep holding and BTC returns back to its previous value, now you’re in 100% profit. For me this meant that even after buying some Bitcoin at its ATH (all-time high) and having it correct over 40%, I was still in profit, because this particular trade was up over 100%. More on this later.
So I bought some Bitcoin! Not all at once – generally a decent strategy is called dollar-cost averaging. In essence, buying a little bit every week at whatever the price at the time is, so that your entry price averages out over time. A better strategy is to only buy if it’s at a good price, or when you need it for a trade setup – not just arbitrarily every week even if the price is high. But I digress, I had some Bitcoin now and I wanted to diversify. Time to buy some alts.
LEARNING 2: Every trade is a decision to have the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re using to buy it
If an alt coin is gaining value against Bitcoin, it’s better to be holding that alt coin than Bitcoin. And if it’s losing value against Bitcoin, you’d be better off keeping it as BTC. Simple, but easy to forget when you load up Coinmarketcap and see all of the price changes in USD. You’ve gone up by 4% today – great! But BTC went up 10%, so you’d have been better off holding BTC. Buying a coin is an active decision that you make to hold the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re selling for it, for the period of time until you close that position. So if I buy 1000 XEM using BTC, that XEM/BTC trade is me saying “I think that XEM will increase in value at a greater rate than BTC will”. If both of them increase in value but BTC does it faster, that was a sub-optimal decision.
LEARNING 3: Satoshis are your friend. Accumulate as many of them as possible
So how does one measure profit on a trade? It’s intuitive to think of it in fiat terms – how many £££ did I make? Something tangible. But really everything should be measured in the smallest unit of Bitcoin (1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC). It’s easier to migrate to this way of thinking if you think of your total investment as the total amount of BTC (or the other major alt coin) that you were able to buy with it. Say I invested £1000 in crypto, and with that I managed to buy 0.1 BTC – that’s my total investment. If I want to diversify and put 10% of that into each of my favourite alt coins, I’d buy 0.01 BTC worth of each of them. Let’s say Litecoin was one of them and I got 1 LTC for my 0.01 BTC. Litecoin’s rocket then fuelled up and started on its journey to the moon, and I decide to bank my profit. I now trade it back for 0.015 BTC. From 0.01 BTC to 0.015 BTC is a profit of 0.005 BTC, or 500,000 satoshis!
“But why not just measure it in £££ - that’s far less complicated?!”
Well here’s the kicker. Let’s say Bitcoin’s value plummeted over the course of that trade. I’ve got more BTC, but because the value of each one decreased, I may still have lost money. So does that mean that trade was a bad decision? Not at all. That trade was a decision between BTC and LTC, and you made the right call. LTC held its value better than BTC did, so you would have lost more if you didn’t take the trade. Profit measured in satoshis allows you to strip away the financial layer and answer the most important question – “was it a good decision to make that trade?” A gain in satoshis is always a win. A gain in £££ is not.
Taking that same scenario in which I’ve got an equal amount of my 10 favourite alt coins. Let’s say 9 out of 10 of them stay at exactly the same value, but the other one shoots to the moon on a lambo all the way to 100%. Woohoo! Shame that was only 1/10 of my portfolio - overall it’s worth 10% more now – but if I’d have invested all my money in that one coin I’d be up 100% overall. Now I’m certainly not advocating putting all your eggs in one basket. Rather, in reference to my previous learning, this helped me realised another very important point.
LEARNING 4: Understanding opportunity cost is a must
Any trade I make is not only a decision between the two coins I’m trading; it’s also a decision to buy that coin instead of any of the other coins I might be interested in. I have 0.1 BTC to spend and 10 alts I want to spend it on – should I just divide it equally? Not necessarily. If you’re super confident about a couple of them, but not so much on the others, spreading it equally doesn’t sound like such a good plan after all does it? Take your time analysing each trade / investment and rank them in order of confidence. In order of potential (risk:reward if you’re a trader). Invest more in the ones you’re more confident in. It’s a really basic point, but one that’s so often forgotten when there are so many exciting prospects out there. Holding a particular coin doesn’t just cost the price that you paid for it, it costs the opportunity to buy something else instead. One of the first things I learnt in trading was to cut your losers short and let your winners run. Why should crypto be any different? Even when you’re in a trade, every moment is an active decision to keep holding it instead of trading it for something else. Don’t blindly HODL hoping for a bad decision to improve, when there are better decisions you can take to re-coup that loss. Equally, don’t sell for a loss just because the value goes down. Re-analyse. Has anything changed? If every reason you had to buy it in the first place still applies, HODL. If something’s changed, including your confidence in it compared to other cryptos, consider switching it for a better opportunity.
So I learnt all of this in my first month – December 2017. Did I make optimal decisions all the time? Absolutely not, but with cryptos riding to all-time highs, my investors were very happy, as was I. It’s not often that you can get a 100% return on investment in just one month in a market. But it’s easy to profit in a bull market.
CHAPTER 3: It’s not all sunshine and lambos
It was around the end of December in which things started to get a bit too parabolic, and I was naturally suspicious of how long this could last. But you find yourself, inexperienced in a new market, eager to see how far you can ride the wave. The fear of missing out on further exponential gains becomes as much of a psychological challenge as taking a loss. In short, you get greedy. Highs that I had once been ecstatic with, a few days later became lows. I told my investors not to expect anything like this in future months. In my monthly summary I said “we are in perhaps the most bullish market the world has ever seen”, and I estimated that we had “a maximum of 1-2 more weeks to ride this momentum”. Prophetic, no? Well it’s easy to make predictions that come true – even a broken clock is right twice a day. What’s difficult is having enough conviction to take your own advice.
LEARNING 5: Make your rules and stick to them, no matter what
This is without a doubt the biggest thing I’ve learnt over the months. If one day you set yourself a target of £X profit – a level you’d be really happy to achieve, be that on a trade or overall – take it. Cash out as soon as you reach it and buy yourself something nice. Make it tangible. It’s easy for the world of online trading to feel gamified, but remember what you’re staking – this is real money. But it’s easier said than done. If you rise suddenly to that target I can tell you your first thought will be “whoa look at it go, I’m gonna see how much further it can get before I cash in”, rather than “mission accomplished, time to get out”. Humans are greedy. We want to take shortcuts – to our dreams, to wealth – but this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. If someone told you they could get you 10%/month gain on your savings (that triples your money every year) you’d probably bite their hand off. So why in crypto would you not be chuffed with 50%, or 20%, or 10%? Don’t move the goalposts. Decide in advance when to take profit and take it.
First off, it’s always a good idea to take out your initial investment at a level after which you’d be psychologically happy if the market goes down or up. For example, if I took out my initial investment (say £1000) when it went up 50% to £1500, and then the market went lunar and doubled the next month, I’d personally feel a bit annoyed at myself for not leaving more money in. That £1000 would’ve been £3000 had I kept it invested…shit. However if I took out my initial investment when it went up 200% - I’d now have £2000 left of my £3000 investment, and if it doubled the next month, I’d be happy with the stake I had remaining, not regretting my decision. That level can only be decided by you, based on your attitude towards risk. Obviously the higher that value is before you cash out your profits, the greater the risk you’re taking since it may never reach that level. Taking out your investment as soon as you’re happy to is a good move because from then on in you’re riding on pure profits. If the market were to crash to zero, you’d still be break even, so it’s much easier to detach yourself from the emotions involved (and we all know how emotional this market is). And if you’re a technical trader, rejoice at the fact that this market is hugely technical, and you can very often predict good levels to get out at – often doubled with buying back in cheaper. I highly recommend for everyone to spend some time learning to analyse charts - even at a basic level. It works. And for heaven's sake if you're day trading don't do what I did and "neglect" to apply basic trading principles like setting a stop loss and sizing each position at maximum ~1% risk. You can call it investing; you can call it speculative buying; but at the end of the day that's just gambling. Don't be lazy. Don't be wreckless. Apply what you've learnt in other markets - crypto is no different.
And for context, no I did not take my own advice. The correction shocked me. Not the fact that it happened, but the fact that it happened so hard and fast. At first I thought it was a healthy dip, and that the uptrend would resume soon enough – no reason to sell. But then the bears took over, and we were in a full on downwards movement. News emerged from South East Asia which caused a great deal of negative sentiment, and Bitcoin’s value tumbled (even when some of the speculation was later deemed invalid), and with that I realised how inherently linked to Bitcoin that all other cryptocurrencies are. You may dislike Bitcoin - the slow transactions; the high fees – but you can’t argue how critically important it is to this market.
LEARNING 6: 40+% market corrections are normal in crypto, but they still hurt
I neglected to mention earlier, but I have a background in trading forex. I understand market patterns, cyclicity and technical analysis such as Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci ratios. It is foolish to think that charts will continue indefinitely in a given direction – there will always be corrections and reversals. All through the correction we’ve started this year with, I have remained very optimistic. Nothing at all has changed to make any of the leading crypto projects less credible or via as future industry disruptors. This is why it’s important to do your own research on coins you invest in – so that you’re psychologically happy holding them long term through price corrections. But I’ll be honest, when Bitcoin broke down through several technical support levels a few days ago, I became apprehensive. Not even close to panic, or tempted to sell. After all I am investing long term, and I still see this as a requisite correction in a much larger up-trend. Or at least the upside potential of that outcome is comfortably worth the risk for me – it’s the opportunity of a lifetime. But even as an experienced trader, doubts can set in. All of the profits I had gained in month 1 were gone, and I have now slightly dipped into loss. As I say, I’m not selling, and my analysis is still very bullish. But HODLing is not always the best strategy.
LEARNING 7: When things are looking bearish, consider the trade to fiat
With the benefit of hindsight, and now having dedicated substantially more time to learning Elliot Wave Theory and studying crypto charts, there were a number of points at which you could have predicted a big ol’ correction was on the cards, before it fully developed. A quick ‘n dirty rule of thumb, for those of you who don’t know how to read charts, is: “Don’t buy into a parabolic market or at an all-time high – it’ll likely correct soon”. But I’d also like to add an addendum to what is a common mantra in the crypto community: “Buy the dip” – this is for day trading. If you’re intending to hold a coin long term, zoom right out and look at the entire coin’s price history. Wait for a macro scale correction, not a micro scale dip. A lot of people got excited the other day at Bitcoin rising 10% - I saw tonnes of calls saying “the correction is over” or “Bitcoin to the moon” – but when you zoom out, we’re still in a downtrend with room to go lower, and substantial resistance to get through before we can rise to new highs. Play the long game and look for long-term signals. And if you are in that subset of people who can predict an imminent correction, or indeed if you’re halfway through a correction with a good chance of it continuing, the best decision may well be to get out of the market until it’s over. Trade your positions back to fiat, and wait for clear recovery to the upside. It’s much more difficult to trade profitably in a down-trend. Most of us could have doubled our BTC holdings just by getting out of crypto before the correction and buying back in cheaper now. So make sure you have an exit plan. Know the steps that you’d need to take to get your money off exchanges / wallets and back into your bank account. Getting out of crypto doesn’t have to be a permanent move. There’s no harm in waiting things out until you’re confident again. After all, refer back to Learning 1 – there are always more opportunities.
CHAPTER 4: Moving forwards
At last, filled with learnings and plenty of inactive time spent refining my strategy, I’ve gone back to my technical analysis roots and really analysed why I’m in my positions.
LEARNING 8: Never stop analysing. You will make mistakes. Learn from them.
Does my portfolio need to be this diverse? Are my invested amounts proportional to my confidence in them? Probably not, so I’ve taken this opportunity to start shifting around. Don’t be precious about losses – losing is a natural part of trading – you only need one 10:1 winning trade to offset ten losing ones. So take some losses and make some mistakes. I’m sure glad I did, because it’s made me a much more confident and competent investor today.
And since everyone always looks around for opinions on the market, I will leave you with one bit of bullish technical insight on our King, Bitcoin. Basic Elliot Wave Theory says that markets move in ebbs and flows – 5 waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 waves of correction. And these waves are fractal in nature, meaning that a full 5-wave pattern forms a single larger wave within a higher degree pattern. All that being said, IF Bitcoin’s run up to its ATH in December constitutes a completed 5-wave pattern, we could consider that history as Wave 1 of a larger up-trend. Using Fibonacci extension ratios that appear in all markets (including crypto, very prominently, even with BTC), we can project the likely extensions of the Wave 3 that would come after we’re done correcting here. Based on analysis run by eSignal, a popular trading platform, the length of Wave 3 will likely reach either 1.62, 2.62 or 4.25 times the length of Wave 1. That means our Wave 3 high would take the price of a single Bitcoin to roughly $32,000, $64,000 or $98,000.
Technical analysis is very subjective, this is merely one possible outcome. But ask yourself, if you had the chance to invest in something with global reach that could make a 5x or even 10x return on your investment, what would you risk for that opportunity?
Thanks for taking the time to read, and I hope this helps some of you.
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